The force is still with Leicester City but history may not beClaudio Ranieri’s team are overperforming in key areas, statistics show, and the second half of the season is likely to be a lot tougher than the first
Opposing defenders play only 22% of passes with their first touch against Leicester
So much for Leicester City stumbling, being swallowed up, slipping back to their rightful place. Instead another week starts with them loitering bloody- mindedly in the mix. Not so long ago their success was assumed to be a byproduct of a soft early schedule and Jamie Vardy’s hot streak. Since then that narrative has mutated like a virus, enveloping Riyad Mahrez’s supreme gifts and those in the boiler room, such as Danny Drinkwater and N’Golo Kanté, along the way. The Foxes are hugely better than was all assumed. That much is clear. The crucial question now is where their wiles and willpower may lead them over their final 16 league games.
Any such assessment should probably start with luck – something Claudio Ranieri’s men have not necessarily enjoyed great dollops of this season. This is unusual. As Omar Chaudhuri, the head of Football Intelligence at 21st Club, explains, good fortune is often behind surprise Premier League success and, when that evaporates, clubs quickly regress to their underlying performance levels.
Remember Hull? In 2008-09 they were sixth at the turn of the year despite conceding nearly five more attempts at goal per game than they were taking. Yet they ended 17th – roughly as expected given their shot numbers. Eighth-placed West Bromwich also enjoyed a more inflated league position in 2012-13 than their shot numbers and quality suggested before slipping back the next season.
Leicester, however, are creating a high number of chances despite stodgier recent performances. According to Simon Gleave, the head of analysis for Infostrada Sports, they rank best on scoring opportunities, a measure that counts major chances whether they result in a shot or not. “Leicester lead this season with 58, three more than Arsenal,” he says. “And comparing the difference of these scoring opportunities for and against, Leicester are +27, Arsenal +27, Tottenham +19, Man Utd +15, Man City +16.”
That said, when the quality of all their shots taken and conceded is considered, Ranieri’s men are overperforming. As Chaudhuri explains: “Leicester are scoring 11.3% of their non-penalty shots. Based on the location of their attempts a typical team would convert 10.5%. In defence they’re conceding 8.1% versus an expectation of 9.2%. These aren’t huge disparities, enough to mean they’re likely to slip away from a title challenge but not enough to mean they’re going to fall off a cliff.”
At the moment Leicester are averaging two points a game. According to 21st Club’s models their performances have “deserved” more like 1.6 points, or 62 points across 38 games. Given the Foxes’ small wage bill, that is hugely impressive but the disparity may be a small red flag.
Historical trends also suggest Leicester may slip. Gleave has looked at every “surprise” team since 1995 – clubs who went from being promoted or finishing in the bottom half of the Premier League to accumulating at least 30 points by halfway through the following season. In 18 of the 20 cases those surprise teams won fewer points in the second half of the season.
Fatigue may also take its toll given Leicester have included only 17 players in starting lineups, the equal fewest in the Premier League with Watford. Yet, counter-intuitively, since 1992-93 there have been 14 cases where a team have used fewer than 20 starters in a season and only once (Stoke 2012-13) did those sides finish in the bottom half.
As Gleave points out, teams who used fewer than 20 starters yet excelled included Nottingham Forest 1994-95 (third), Bolton in 2003-04 (eighth), Aston Villa 2007-08 and 2008-09 (sixth) and Fulham 2008-09 (seventh). The figures show it is essential that key players in smaller clubs remain fit – crucially Leicester have avoided substantial injuries.
Leicester’s style of play may also become a factor in the run-in. Whereas Ranieri’s side swarm their opponents in midfield, their approach is less taxing than the near-constant press of some rivals. Opposing defenders play only 22% of passes with their first touch against Leicester, which indicates they are not particularly concerned with putting opponents under pressure high up the pitch – Liverpool by contrast average 34% and Spurs 30%.
Yet, as Chaudhuri explains: “However, when the ball comes into midfield Leicester are easily the most combative team in the league, averaging 22 regains per central midfielder per 90 minutes (next best is Watford on 19).” The large number of bodies behind the ball probably explains why Leicester’s opponents hit the target with only 28% of shots – Chelsea’s and Villa’s defences, by contrast, average nearly 40%.
Leicester also rank in the bottom three for possession, last in pass-completion success and second in long balls played, behind only West Bromwich. These statistics makes them sound particularly earthy and as English as John Bull: yet the data do not tell the full story. The sight of Leicester’s players breaking forward, as if galloping clear of an impending explosion, have been among the sights of the season.
The title is surely beyond them despite their protracted heroics. But, if they qualify for the Champions League, – and they are favoured by the bookies – it must still be the greatest achievement in the Premier League era, especially given the almost umbilical link between high wages and a top-four finish. And while the Premier League has always mythologised and exaggerated the notion any team can upset the odds on any given day, few expected Leicester – 1,500-1 outsiders in August – to advertise this so emphatically or for so long.
Sean Ingle - Guardian
