Europe After The Rain

Lots to reflect back upon, plus look forward to.



First of all, since I’ve had the privilege of taking part in LoveEvertonForum’s in-depth discussion pages
I’ve been interpreting my initial post titles in a similar theme to the great Matthew Barry –
only applying a little more cryptic message in each.


Tonight Tonight Tonight (Genesis),
We Are The Champions (Queen)
and Enjoy The Silence (Depeche Mode)

three of which thus far.


This time: an artist a little closer to home, in John Foxx
born in Chorley and best known for being the one-time frontman of Ultravox.
‘Europe After The Rain’ one of his first solo singles, and in NO WAY ANY reference to an online interpretation.



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The season is reaching an exciting and nail-biting climax.


Last Thursday evening; an attritional battle,
brought about in part to injuries on both teams
and part the weather making for the potential of mistakes – and the fear factor of making them.



Arsenal’s win at Stamford Bridge the night before
meant defeat in Birmingham would mean the Gooners could yet play a part the final push for 7th.


The point achieved at Villa Park now means maximum points vs Sheff Utd and Wolves
will eliminate Arsenal’s hopes of over-taking us.


However, this meant that West Ham were given two extra points of a cushion on us –
‘til tonight’s 1-1 draw on the south coast returned our generosity.


So where does this leave the overall picture, specifically for 7th - and that Europa Conference invitation?



To clarify, the assumption that Tottenham will be too good to catch (they are currently 7th)
is that back-to-back west Midlands opponents’ visiting their 62k stadium
and a season closer at Leicester
will bring Spurs a minimum of 3 points –
enough for us to need to overturn a goal differential of 16 as things stand
(barring ANY positive result at the ETIHAD that same closing season afternoon).



Perhaps a little pessimistic, given the nature of this season’s brutally-congested fixture list –
particularly for European football participants spurs definitely were.


Yet realistically, it’s one of West Ham, Arsenal and ourselves
for that 7th place and Europa Conference participation in 2021-22.


With a 3pt lead on us, West Ham visit a relegated-West Brom
before hosting Southampton on the final Sunday afternoon,
carrying a goal differential of +6 on us,
(+6.5 to use an American terminology, for the east Londoners have scored ten more goals)
and having played a game more;
something that will change with the Blades visiting Goodison Sunday evening.


Arsenal: now the form team (over the past three Premier League fixtures)
travel to Crystal Palace on Wednesday night
before closing out their season at home to Brighton.

You’d only expect Arsenal to increase an already-superior goal differential on us of +8
on both those occasions.
(Only Man City and Chelski have conceded fewer League goals this season than Arsenal.)



To forecast:

West Ham Utd may finish with 59-65pts
(and a goal difference around +8 & +12);

Arsenal should finish with 61pts
(with a goal difference in excess of +10);

leaving Everton currently on 56pts
(identical to Spurs –
both with three to play, but Everton visiting Manchester in the season finale,
so looking for a target of 62pts.)


All this, in a nutshell:

IF WE WANT Europe signed and sealed PRIOR to Man City
then we MUST win at home to BOTH vs Sheff Utd AND vs Wolves, 
hoping West Ham either earn only 2 more points - so NO WINS} from their last two matches,

OR WE MUST attain a positive +7 goal difference swing in our favour against the Hammers
between now
and 6pm, Sunday 23rd May -
SHOULD West Ham collect 3 points either at the Hawthorns or vs Southampton.


All this, assuming we end our Goodison involvement this season
by beating BOTH Sheffield United AND Wolves
means we can forget about Arsenal.


Simple...


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That’s the stats over – for now, at least.


I’d like to touch on the Villa Park stale-mate too.



In particular, the final act of the game.


There are many players of who(m) many fans – myself included –
believe should be in consideration for seeking new employers.

One of these players has taken much abuse on social media, among many other forms of unnecessary and vile hatred.

But just as in deep injury-time at the Emirates Stadium,
he had to rescue a clean sheet with quick reflexes;
something closely linked to increased concentration, an attribute many believed he has lacked for too long.

This player has been very, very loyal to our club.


Joining in 2017, in the departure of one of the three best strikers ever to have played for the Toffees,
Jordan Pickford has carried many defenders and midfielders who either have clear weaknesses in their games,
or are just not talented enough for 21st century Premier League football.

Carried by keeping our team in games
by having to make way-too-many saves for our liking.

But he’s just got on with it – as a World Cup semi-finalist
and who knows for what fate has in store for him this Summer...


As lone striker for Villa, Keinan Davis won a free-kick from a match-fitness lacking Allan
right on the last fifteen seconds of the game.

The cross is good, albeit at point-blank range.

Who slices through the moving players in the goal area
and gets a firm clearance, before a goal-kick is won by the Everton defenders?

Pickford.


He may not be the only gentleman to have stood by our club
in the face of the FFP ransoms holding our progress in acute check.

He’s also not the only one who could have a superb Summer’s international success.

We owe this guy big-time.

Please, let’s give our first team every bit of support
between now and Sunday 23rd.

It’s the only way we’ll be in Europe,
not only next September, but the following February;
justifying the decisions of Summer transfer recruits to have joined a club
with a present AND a future – NOT just a glorious past...